"10-Year Market Forecast
This market forecast report, which is available immediately, is part of a consultant service from ElectroniCast Consultants to our clients. This 2019-2029 market estimate and forecast is presented for our extensive study of the worldwide use of packaged Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) in Test/ Measurement, Medical and other Science Devices.
The market data are segmented into the following geographic regions, plus a Global summary:
• North, Central and South America (America)
• Europe, plus Middle Eastern and African countries (EMEA)
• Asia Pacific (APAC)
The LED market is segmented into the following sub-application categories:
• Sensing/Detection and Analytical/Monitoring
• Photo-therapy/Sanitation/Cell Regeneration/Curing
• Instrumentation Light Source and Imaging
The market data for are also segmented by the following colors (type):
• Multiple Color/Multiple Chip
• UV and Other
LED Level Quantified in the ElectroniCast Study Below, are four levels (or “food chain”) of LEDs. For the purposes of this ElectroniCast study, we quantify and provide a market forecast for “Level 2”
Level 1 - The chip or die
Level 2 - The Packaged LED Chip(s)
Level 3 – LED module / LED Lamp
Level 4 - LED luminaire (light fixture/light fitting with LED module/lamp)
This report provides the market data by the following functions:
• Consumption Value (US$, million)
• Quantity (number/units)
• Average Selling Prices (ASP $, each)
The value is determined by multiplying the number of units by the average selling price (ASP). The ASPs are based on the price of the packaged LED at the initial factory level. The value is then based on the end-use application and the end-use region.
Microsoft Excel- Data Base Structure At each database level, the ElectroniCast estimates and forecast for packaged LEDs is built from the bottom up, segmented by color–type, arranged in a hierarchy, of the end-user types (applications) that use devices that the LEDs are used in, and arranged in a hierarchy and summed upward. The estimates and forecast for each LED color-type in each region is in terms of quantity (unit/each), value (US$ Million) and average selling price.
Excel Data Table (2019-2029)
ElectroniCast Market Forecast
Excel Worksheet (2019-2029)
ElectroniCast Market Forecast
Information Base for the Market Forecast
Primary Research This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually over the past several years, but updated through early April 2020. During this period, ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and selected representative individuals in the following sectors relative to the use of LEDs: medical, science, bio-photonic, display industry, test/measurement, instrumentation, R&D, university, military defense/space and government. The interviews were conducted principally with:
• Engineers, marketing personnel and management at manufacturers of LED test/measurement & medical science equipment/devices and related equipment, as well as other technologies
• Design group leaders, engineers, marketing personnel and market planners at major users and potential users of LEDs and test/measurement & medical and other science equipment/devices
• Other industry experts, including those focused on standards activities, trade associations, and investments.
The interviews covered issues of technology, R&D support, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics.
Analysis The analyst then considered customer expectations of near term growth in their application, plus forecasted economic payback of investment, technology trends and changes in government regulations in each geographical region, to derive estimated growth rates of quantity and price of each product subset in each application. These forecasted growth rates are combined with the estimated baseline data to obtain the long-range forecasts at the lowest detailed level of each product and application.
Secondary Research A full review of published information was also performed to supplement information obtained through our interviews. The following sources were reviewed:
• Professional technical journals, papers and conference proceedings
• Trade press articles
• Company profile and financial information; Product literature
• Additional information based on previous ElectroniCast market studies
• Personal knowledge of the research team
In analyzing and forecasting the complexities of geographical regional markets, it is essential that the market research team have a good and a deep understanding of the technology and of the industry. ElectroniCast members who participated in this report were qualified.
Bottom-up Methodology ElectroniCast forecasts, as illustrated in the forecast data structure, are developed initially at the lowest detail level, then summed to successively higher levels. The background market research focuses on the amount of each type of product used in each application in the base year (last year = 2019), and the prices paid at the first transaction from the manufacturer. This forms the base year data. ElectroniCast analysts then forecast the growth rates in component quantity use in each application, along with price trends, based on competitive, economic and technology forecast trends, and apply these to derive long term forecasts at the lowest application levels. The usage growth rate forecasts depend heavily on analysis of overall end user trends applicable products/applications and equipment usage and economic payback.
Cross-Correlation Increases Accuracy The quantities of packaged LEDs, LED Driver ICs, LED materials/wafer/die/chips, LED Lamps and LED fixtures (luminaries) and other LED-based components, manufacturing processes/quality control/yields, and end-use products used in a particular application are interrelated. Since ElectroniCast conducts annual analysis and forecast updates in each LED component field, accurate current quantity estimates are part of the corporate database. These quantities are cross-correlated as a ""sanity check"".
ElectroniCast, each year since 2002, has conducted extensive research and updated their forecasts of several LED lighting categories. As technology and applications have advanced, the number of component subsets covered by the forecasts has expanded impressively.
The calculation and analysis data spreadsheet technique is based upon input/output analysis, leveraging the quantitative consumption quantity, price and value of each item in each application at all levels to achieve reasonable quantitative conclusions; this interactive analysis concept, first applied on a major scale by Leonteff, of the US Department of Commerce, in the mid 1950s, was then adopted successfully by analyst/forecasting firms Quantum Science, Gnostic Concepts and (in 1981) by ElectroniCast