10-Year Market Forecast
This market forecast report is available immediately. The analysis and forecast of global market consumption of planar lightwave circuit (PLC) splitters used in optical fiber communication applications. For the purposes of this study, ElectroniCast specifically addresses the PLC splitter, using waveguide circuits and aligned fiber optic pigtails, integrated inside a package.
The 2019-2029 quantitative market review and forecast data presented in this report are segmented into the following geographic regions, plus a Global summary:
• America (North America, Central and South America)
• EMEA (Europe, Middle Eastern countries, plus Africa)
• APAC (Asia Pacific)
PLC Splitter Applications analysis covered in this report:
• Service Providers
• Fiber Optic Test/Measurement
• Private Enterprise
• Harsh Environment
The forecast for each product-level is presented by function:
• Consumption Value ($, Million)
• Number of Units (Quantity in 1,000)
• Average Selling Prices ($, each)
PLC splitters will continue to contribute an important role in Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) networks by allowing a single passive optical network (PON) interface to be shared among many subscribers. PLC splitters are available in compact sizes; therefore, they can be used in aerial apparatus, pedestals or in-ground as well as rack mount or other module-based value-added product. Installation is simple using a variety of connector types or splicing.
This report provides a detailed market and technology analysis of PLC splitters, which are largely driven by FTTx / Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) and are trending towards commodity manufacturing processes. The market forecast is segmented by the following product categories and split configurations:
Hierarchy of Selected PLC Splitters, by Fabrication-Level
Component Device (compact)
Hierarchy of Selected PLC Splitters, by Splitter Configuration
Other (miscellaneous MxN)
The information is presented in easy-to-follow illustrations and text. The reasons for the forecasted trends are discussed. The report also outlines the market research methodology followed and the key assumptions made. Terms, acronyms, and abbreviations used are defined. A list of selected optical fiber PLC splitter manufacturers and related companies is provided, along with description of the types of PLC splitters and related technologies that they address. The technology trends of other pertinent fiber optic components and devices in the fiber optic marketplace are presented.
Optical communication networks combine voice, audio, data at high and low speeds, video, television (including interactive 3D high resolution television), and other specialized transmission into a single integrated infrastructure.
Included within the infrastructure is business Enterprise resource planning (ERP) software, unified messaging, web-assisted call centers, and a variety of small-business infrastructures. Residential use includes smart-TV (Internet-based TV), cloud-based video on demand (Netflix/Amazon), e-commerce, small office/home office telecommuting, advertising, medical monitoring, elder care monitoring, childcare monitoring, home and office security. Most existing communications will be built upon an Internet backbone during the period of this study. Reasons for this transition are rooted in demand. The customers are demanding greater speed, more functionality and reliability, and naturally, they expect “perfect” quality of service.
Planar waveguide circuits (PWCs) also referred to as planar lightwave circuits (PLCs), incorporate numerous active and passive functional uses for packaged modules. The long-term trend is for a larger share of discrete-circuit (single-function) based PWCs/PLCs being displaced by equivalent performance hybrid (multiple-function) planar devices.
The majority of optical functions, such as splitters, variable optical attenuators (VOAs) and array waveguides (AWGs) are currently developed and implemented forming discrete (single function/monolithic) component integration. The combination of the packaging and integrated optics aspects of PWC technology provides for an attractive and powerful technology for devices/modules, which will hold multiple (two or more) functions (integrated multifunction devices); thereby, reducing size, weight, and cost versus larger, bulkier discrete devices/modules.
As the demand for larger quantities of optical communication components evolve, technologies, which are friendly to automation assembly processes, will have a competitive manufacturing/cost advantage. Use of silicon wafers, for example, draws extensively on the mass-production techniques of the commercial integrated circuit (IC) production whelm, since the fabrication of PWCs incorporates many of the same pieces of equipment and processes.
Fiber-to-the-Home passive optical networks (FTTH/PONs) integrated PLCs, with multiple functions, have promise for a sizable market. The biplexer is an all-in-one transponder that includes the two wavelengths, 1310nm upstream and 1490nm downstream, is one end-use modules based on planar waveguide technology that is required for PON. And some networks will use a 1550nm wavelength for a cable TV overlay, creating the need for triplexers.
This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually over 20 years, but updated through the middle of April 2020. During this period, ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the fiber optics industry plus telecommunications, cable TV, private datacom, military/aerospace & other communication industries, instrumentation/ laboratory – R&D and factory/manufacturing, from the standpoint of both suppliers and users of planar waveguide circuits. The interviews were conducted principally with selected:
Engineers, marketing personnel and management at manufacturers of fiber optic couplers/splitters, PON/FTTH components/devices, optical fiber, AWGs/optical waveguide and other components, cable assemblies, test/measurement equipment, Fiber optic connectors, mechanical splices splice and installation apparatus
Design group leaders, engineers, marketing personnel and market planners at major users and potential users of optical communication devices, including passive optical devices and active/transceivers, such as telecommunication transmission, switching and distribution equipment producers, data communications equipment producers, harsh environment, military systems, aircraft and spacecraft electronic equipment producers, optical instrumentation system producers and others
Other industry experts, including those focused on standards activities, trade associations, and investments.
The interviews covered issues of technology, R&D support, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics.
Selected customers also were interviewed, to obtain their estimates of quantities received and average prices paid, as a crosscheck of selected vendor estimates. Customer estimates of historical and expected near term future growth of their application are obtained. Their views of use of new technology products were obtained.
The analyst then considered customer expectations of near-term growth in their application, plus forecasted economic payback of investment, technology trends and changes in government regulations in each geographical region, to derive estimated growth rates of quantity and price of each product subset in each application. These forecasted growth rates are combined with the estimated baseline data to obtain the long-range forecasts at the lowest detailed level of each product and application.
A full review of published information was also performed to supplement information obtained through interviews. The following sources were reviewed:
Professional technical journals and papers
Trade press articles
Technical conference proceedings
Company profile and financial information
Additional information based on previous ElectroniCast market studies
Personal knowledge of the research team.
In analyzing and forecasting the complexities of the worldwide markets for planar waveguide circuits and related devices, it is essential that the market research team have a good and a deep understanding of the technology and of the industry. ElectroniCast members who participated in this report were qualified.
Note: Market forecast data in this study report refers to consumption (use) for a particular calendar year; therefore, this data is not cumulative data.
Bottom-up Methodology ElectroniCast forecasts are developed initially at the lowest detail level and then summed to successively higher levels. The background market research focuses on the amount of each type of product used in each application in the base year (last year), and the prices paid at the first transaction from the manufacturer. This forms the base year data. ElectroniCast analysts then forecast the growth rates in component quantity use in device type, along with price trends, based on competitive, economic and technology forecast trends, and apply these to derive long term forecasts at the lowest application (use) levels. The usage growth rate forecasts depend heavily on analysis of overall end user trends toward digital broadband communication equipment usage and economic payback.
Coronavirus Adjustment April 20, 2020 – The coronavirus pandemic remains a grave concern throughout the world. In most countries, all “non-essential” businesses are closed, employment is affected by quarantine of the public. Depending on political, economic, health and several other consideration factors, these restrictions could be extended several more months. Because of the impact on production, sales, shipment and implementation (and other) caused by the negative effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19), we forecast a slowdown or negative movement in consumption in 2020 and a sluggish recovery for one or more years.
ElectroniCast methodology in determining the downturn of the consumption (use) of PLC splitters, begins with the volume (quantity) forecast, before any considerations of the coronavirus impact. Then, we evaluated current manufacturing (not only PLC splitters, but all relative components, products and services), inventory, distribution channels, shipping, logistics, sales/marketing channels, user restrictions, with the emphasis on actual possibility of installations for both essential and non-essential or selective implementation of communication networks or other. Other considerations include: financial/economy in general, employment (staffing) of all levels, such as design, implementation, production, marketing/sales, management, OEM capability and product/service demand, distributors, sales agents, customers (at all levels), and many other concerns were considered.
All of the volume (unit quantity) evaluations were followed by evaluation of average selling price assessment, based on all of the (same) volume methodology assessments.
Cross-Correlation Increases Accuracy The quantities of fiber optic attenuators, DWDM, optical fiber/cable, connectors, transceivers, transport terminals, optical add/drop MUX, couplers/splitters, isolators, photonic switches and other products used in a particular application are interrelated. Since ElectroniCast conducts annual analysis and forecast updates in each fiber optic related product field, accurate current quantity estimates in each application are part of this corporate database. These quantities are cross-correlated as a “sanity check.”
ElectroniCast, each year since 1985, has conducted extensive research and updated their forecasts of each fiber optic component category. As technology and applications have advanced, the number of component subsets covered by the forecasts has expanded impressively.